Is Nigeria at Risk of a Coup d’État? We Hope Not — But the Warnings Are Clear

In recent years, the African continent has witnessed a disturbing resurgence of military coups — from Mali to Guinea, from Burkina Faso to Niger, and most recently Guinea-Bissau. These events have raised an unavoidable question for Africa’s largest democracy and most populous nation:

Is Nigeria at risk of a coup d’état?

The honest answer is sobering: Nigeria is not immune.The warning signs are present, the pressure points are real, and the discontent within the nation is undeniable. Yet, despite these risks, a coup is neither desirable nor inevitable. Nigeria’s future still depends largely on the choices its leaders make today.

This commentary examines the realities, the dangers, and the urgent steps needed to keep Nigeria from sliding into unconstitutional military takeover.

Nigeria’s Democratic Fragility: Why the Question Even Arises

Nigeria became a democracy in 1999 after decades of military rule. Twenty-six years later, many Nigerians feel that the democratic promise has not been fulfilled. The rising worry about a possible coup stems from several interlinked issues:

1. Widespread Disillusionment with Governance

Across Nigeria, frustration has reached a boiling point. Many citizens feel abandoned by the political class. Cost of living has skyrocketed. Inflation is crushing families. Corruption remains pervasive. Public institutions have weakened. When democratic governments fail to deliver hope, alternatives—however dangerous—begin to look tempting to a desperate population.

2. Intensifying Insecurity

From banditry to Boko Haram, from communal clashes to targeted killings, insecurity has reached unprecedented levels. When governments fail to protect lives and property, the military becomes increasingly emboldened. The line between “intervention” and “takeover” grows thinner in the eyes of soldiers who believe they are doing the job elected leaders cannot or will not do.

Insecurity has become one of the greatest threats to Nigeria’s stability and a major factor fueling fears of a potential coup. Across the country, armed bandits, kidnappers, insurgents, and separatist militias continue to operate with alarming freedom, overwhelming security forces and leaving citizens feeling unprotected and abandoned. From the endless Boko Haram attacks in the Northeast, to mass kidnappings in the Northwest, to the ongoing Christian genocide in the northern parts of the country including Middle Belt, and targeted killings in the Southeast, Southwest, and South-south; the nation is gripped by a level of violence unprecedented since the Civil War. When a government consistently fails to secure the lives and property of its citizens, especially Christians, frustration grows not only among the populace but also within the military ranks tasked with fighting a war they are often ill-equipped for. This dangerous combination of public despair and military fatigue creates conditions in which soldiers may begin to see themselves—not elected leaders—as the only viable solution to national chaos. Insecurity, therefore, is not just a humanitarian crisis; it is a political time bomb.

3. Political Polarization and Ethnic Division

Nigeria is deeply divided along ethnic, religious, and regional lines. These tensions have reached a point where national unity feels fragile. In such climates, political instability becomes easier to exploit. Military actors often justify coups as necessary to prevent national disintegration.

4. Economic Collapse and Rising Poverty

Nigeria’s economy is struggling. Youth unemployment remains dangerously high. When a nation’s young people lose hope, instability grows. Economic hardship is one of the strongest predictors of political upheaval — and Nigeria is in its most precarious economic state in decades.

5. The Continental Trend of Coups

Coups spread like regional contagions. The wave of military takeovers across West and Central Africa creates a psychological environment where militaries begin to consider whether similar actions could “reset” their own nations.Nigeria is surrounded — Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger have all fallen to coups.

No responsible analyst can ignore this context.

Would the Nigerian Military Attempt a Coup?

Today’s Nigerian military is not the same institution that seized power repeatedly between 1966 and 1993. It is more professional, more globally integrated, and more constrained by international partnerships.

However, professionalism alone cannot guarantee restraint, especially when:

• Soldiers see politicians enriching themselves

• Barracks welfare is neglected

• Morale is low due to endless, deadly engagements with insurgents

• The public is increasingly hostile to government and might silently support an intervention

While Nigeria’s military leadership has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to democracy, history teaches that institutions buckle when internal frustrations align with national chaos.

Is Nigeria in Immediate Danger of a Coup?

Not immediately — but the risk is real if current conditions worsen.Nigeria is not at the brink of collapse, but it is certainly not stable.

The ingredients that have triggered coups in neighboring countries are all present:

• Public anger

• Economic hardship

• Security failure

• Institutional decay

• Loss of trust in leadership

Countries do not fall to coups overnight. They slide gradually until the final trigger snaps.

Nigeria is somewhere on that slope.

Why a Coup Would Be a Disaster for Nigeria

Some frustrated citizens mistakenly believe that military rule would be better than corrupt democracy. This is a dangerous illusion. A coup in Nigeria would:

• Shatter investor confidence

• Trigger international sanctions

• Deepen insecurity

• Destroy democratic institutions

• Encourage secessionist movements

• Divide the military itself

• Possibly plunge the country into conflict

Nigeria’s size, complexity, and diversity make it fundamentally incompatible with military governance. The cost would be catastrophic.

What Must Nigeria Do to Prevent a Coup?

Avoiding a coup is not just the military’s responsibility — it is a national responsibility. But the political leadership carries the greatest burden. Nigeria’s rulers must:

1. Restore Economic Stability

No democracy can survive when hunger becomes widespread. Economic reforms must prioritize relief for ordinary citizens, not political elites.

2. Tackle Corruption with Genuine Will

Token anti-corruption efforts are no longer enough. Impunity must end at all levels.

3. Rebuild Security Capacity

The military and police need better funding, equipment, training, and oversight. Security failure fuels discontent more than any other factor.

4. Strengthen National Unity

Hate speech, ethnic favoritism, and regional alienation are pushing Nigeria toward dangerous fragmentation. Leaders must seek inclusion, justice, and fairness.

5. Respect the Rule of Law and Democratic Norms

Violating rights, suppressing free speech, and manipulating institutions only create more anger — and anger is the spark that coups ignite.

Conclusion: Is a Coup Possible? Yes. Is It Desirable? Absolutely Not.

Nigeria stands at a crucial turning point. While the nation is not yet on the brink of military takeover, the warning signs cannot be ignored. The same conditions that led to coups in Mali, Guinea, Niger, and Burkina Faso are increasingly evident in Nigeria — economic crisis, insecurity, public frustration, and governance failures.

But Nigeria still has one powerful advantage: the collective hope and determination of its people.

If leaders act responsibly, if institutions are strengthened, and if citizens insist on accountability, Nigeria can avoid the trap that has consumed its neighbors.

The question, then, is not just “Is Nigeria at risk of a coup?”It is also:“Will Nigeria’s leaders take the necessary steps before it’s too late?”

The future is not fixed.We hope — and we must work — to ensure that Nigeria’s democracy stands firm.